Kalshi Prediction Markets Match or Beat Traditional Forecasting Tools For Macro Indicators, NBER Study Finds

A new NBER working paper from researchers at the Federal Reserve, Northwestern's Kellogg School and Johns Hopkins finds that Kalshi - the largest federally regulated prediction market in the U.S., overseen by the CFTC - produces macroeconomic forecasts that match or beat those of professional forecasters and traditional financial instruments like fed funds futures. The study compared Kalshi-implied forecasts for the federal funds rate, CPI inflation and unemployment against the New York Fed&...